We present a preliminary model for the regional estimate of the location parameter (i.e. the mean) of the probability distribution of the annual maxima of daily rainfall in orographic areas. The model is able to capture the phenomenon of the rainfall amplification due to the presence of orographic barriers in the Campania region and it represents a first step towards the improvement of the predictive ability of the regional models of extreme rainfall in orographic areas. As a background and motivation, we consider an innovative statistical procedure, which allows the objective identification of areas with enhanced variability of extreme rainfall. These areas correspond to a particular set of orographic objects, which have been a priori identified through an automatic geomorphological procedure.
Improved modelling of orographic effects in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall in Campania (Italy)
PELOSI, ANNA;FURCOLO, Pierluigi
2015-01-01
Abstract
We present a preliminary model for the regional estimate of the location parameter (i.e. the mean) of the probability distribution of the annual maxima of daily rainfall in orographic areas. The model is able to capture the phenomenon of the rainfall amplification due to the presence of orographic barriers in the Campania region and it represents a first step towards the improvement of the predictive ability of the regional models of extreme rainfall in orographic areas. As a background and motivation, we consider an innovative statistical procedure, which allows the objective identification of areas with enhanced variability of extreme rainfall. These areas correspond to a particular set of orographic objects, which have been a priori identified through an automatic geomorphological procedure.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
