Prefiguring a future city: urban growth, spatial planning and the economic local context in Catalonia

This study undertook a quantitative analysis of town master plans to define future urban growth. Spatial direction and intensity of urban expansion were analyzed in relation to local contexts using land zoning and a comprehensive database of socioeconomic indicators at the municipal scale in Catalonia, Spain. Our results illustrate a progressive shift towards discontinuous settlements consolidating urban centers in most accessible rural areas. Contrary to what was hypotized (and partly obesrved) in recent decades settlements expansion will modestly contribute to a balanced urban spatial structure. Future urban development in Catalonia will not follow a polycentric model, fuelling instead the growth the medium and small urban centers. This process may consolidate the incipient divide in rural areas with high accessibility and dynamic economic base and remote inland areas experiencing land abandonment and depopulation. The use of the indicators derived from town master plans in the assessment of (scattered or polycentric) future urbanization in Europe is finally discussed.