tThe increasing availability of operational limited area ensemble prediction systems (LEPS) opens up newopportunities for the application of weather forecasts in agriculture and water resource management.This study aims to evaluate the performances of probabilistic daily reference crop evapotranspira-tion (ET0) forecasts with lead times up to 5 days and a spatial resolution of 7 km, computed by usingCOSMO-LEPS outputs (provided by the European Consortium for small–scale modelling, COSMO), in aregion of southern Italy known for its complex topography in proximity to the Mediterranean coast-line. ET0was estimated by means of three different estimation methods, i.e. the Hargreaves-Samani (HS),Priestley-Taylor (PT) and FAO Penman-Monteith (PM) equations, in order to assess the size of the weatherforecast errors with models of different accuracies. Forecasts were verified with ground-based data from18 automatic weather stations, and for two irrigation seasons. Performances were assessed with bothdeterministic indices, including BIAS, RMSE, correlation coefficients and coefficients of variation of the16-member ensemble forecasts, and probabilistic metrics, such as the Brier skill score, reliability dia-grams and relative operating characteristic. ET0forecasts with PM equation were robust and reliable,with slight sensitivity to the forecast lead time. High performances were also achieved with HS and PTequations, except for locations close to the coastline, where large systematic errors affect the numericalweather forecasts.
|Titolo:||Probabilistic forecasting of reference evapotranspiration with alimited area ensemble prediction systemA|
|Data di pubblicazione:||2016|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||1.1 Articoli su Rivista|