This paper investigates the use of feed forward neural networks for testing the weak form market efficiency. In contrast to approaches that compare out-of-sample predictions of non-linear models to those generated by the random walk model, we directly focus on testing for unpredictability by considering the null hypothesis that a given set of past lags has no effect on current returns. To avoid the data-snooping problem the testing procedure is based on the StepM approach in order to control the familiwise error rate. The procedure is used to test for predictive power in FTSE-MIB index of the italian stock market.

Testing the weak form market efficiency: empirical evidence from the Italian stock exchange

ALBANO, GIUSEPPINA;LA ROCCA, Michele;PERNA, Cira
2013-01-01

Abstract

This paper investigates the use of feed forward neural networks for testing the weak form market efficiency. In contrast to approaches that compare out-of-sample predictions of non-linear models to those generated by the random walk model, we directly focus on testing for unpredictability by considering the null hypothesis that a given set of past lags has no effect on current returns. To avoid the data-snooping problem the testing procedure is based on the StepM approach in order to control the familiwise error rate. The procedure is used to test for predictive power in FTSE-MIB index of the italian stock market.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11386/3879948
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