The current paper is intended to support the stage of evaluating the potential investment project, providing an instrument for quantification of the risks in the various operations and for identification of the levels of maximum risk characterising the particular type of project under examination. The conceptual approach considers three types of works, categorised according to their remunerative capacities: ‘hot’, ‘warm’ and ‘cold’. Beginning from this division we then conduct a data collection process to identify the descriptive characteristics useful for comparison of the three types. We regard each input to the model as a parameter to be evaluated, for purposes of identifying a range within which to evaluate the risks of a specific project, belonging to one the types of works (hot, warm, cold). For this we develop a questionnaire for submission to experts. The calculation of the frequency of answers to the questionnaire permits identification of characteristic values for each descriptive variable, for each of the types of works. These values are gather in an input matrix, developed as part of the model. We then develop a conceptual scheme to relate the variables of the different forms of Public-Private Partnerships. We next translate the conceptual scheme as an interactive model. The variables chosen for evaluation of the risks are evaluated in terms of the impact on each sub-type. This leads to a dynamic analysis for calculation of the minimum and maximum risk linked to each input, and obtains an interval in which to place each specific result from the analysis carried out using the model. The result is identification of a range for evaluation of the riskiness of the projects, as the determining factor in guiding the acceptance or rejection of PF investment proposal on the part of the market or concessionary.

Model for analysis and evaluation of risks in Project Financing operations

DE FALCO, MASSIMO;DI STASI, DONATO
2015

Abstract

The current paper is intended to support the stage of evaluating the potential investment project, providing an instrument for quantification of the risks in the various operations and for identification of the levels of maximum risk characterising the particular type of project under examination. The conceptual approach considers three types of works, categorised according to their remunerative capacities: ‘hot’, ‘warm’ and ‘cold’. Beginning from this division we then conduct a data collection process to identify the descriptive characteristics useful for comparison of the three types. We regard each input to the model as a parameter to be evaluated, for purposes of identifying a range within which to evaluate the risks of a specific project, belonging to one the types of works (hot, warm, cold). For this we develop a questionnaire for submission to experts. The calculation of the frequency of answers to the questionnaire permits identification of characteristic values for each descriptive variable, for each of the types of works. These values are gather in an input matrix, developed as part of the model. We then develop a conceptual scheme to relate the variables of the different forms of Public-Private Partnerships. We next translate the conceptual scheme as an interactive model. The variables chosen for evaluation of the risks are evaluated in terms of the impact on each sub-type. This leads to a dynamic analysis for calculation of the minimum and maximum risk linked to each input, and obtains an interval in which to place each specific result from the analysis carried out using the model. The result is identification of a range for evaluation of the riskiness of the projects, as the determining factor in guiding the acceptance or rejection of PF investment proposal on the part of the market or concessionary.
978-88-908649-0-2
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11386/4654885
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