Time-Variant Reliability of RC Structures

Reinforced concrete structures are generally affected by degradation phenomena, which results in a time variability in strength and stiffness beyond the baseline conditions which are assumed in structural design, in particular when the concrete is exposed to an aggressive environment. Therefore, structural safety should realistically be considered time-variant. This paper provides a probabilistic approach to predict the time-evolution of the mechanical and geometrical properties of a reinforced concrete structural element (i.e., bridge pier) subjected to corrosion-induced deterioration, due to diffusive attack of chlorides, in order to evaluate its service life. The proposed model is based on Monte Carlo simulations in order to evaluate time variant axial force-bending moment resistance domains, with the aim to estimate the time-variant reliability index. Finally, an application to estimate the expected lifetime of a deteriorating reinforced concrete bridge pile is proposed.