Recurrence Analysis - Method and Applications

For alongtime,sciencehasbeenconsideredasasetofactivitiesconsistingof explaining,predicting,andverifyingphenomenaintermsofcause–effectrela- tionships.Thisperspectiveofinquiry,mainlybasedontheverification ofgeneral laws andanobjective,measurable,predictableideaofreality,underwentan importantphaseoftransformationattheendofthenineteenthcenturywhich markedachangeforthescientific rationalitymodelinbothnaturalandsocial sciences.Morespecifically,incontrasttothepredominantideaofsciencebasedon perfect determinism,thecorrectpredictionandrepeatabilityofresults,andacon- ceptionofrealityassimpleandordered,anewmodelofthinkingemergedwhich recognizedthenatureofscienceasbounded,probabilistic,pluralistic,andcon- stantly evolving.Thechangeofperspectivederivesfromtherecognitionofcom- plex phenomena(Eveetal. 1997; Byrne 2013; ByrneandCallaghan 2013), where behaviourisnotnecessarilydeterminedbyproportionalrelationshipsofcauseand effect.Thisinformsaweakerbutmorerealisticconceptionofdeterminism(Ber- tuglia andVaio 2003), whichcanalsoaccountforemergentandmultidimensional phenomena.Theepistemologicalaspectsinvolvedalsomethodologicalandtech- nical issues.Inthecaseofthetimeseriesanalysis,aspectrumofmodelshasbeen developed,rangingfromtheclassicaltomodernapproaches(Chatfield 2013).