Recovery and valorisation of historical small towns. A model for assessing the investment risk. The case study of Aterrana

The historical small towns are an essential trace of the social, cultural and historical-architectural heritage of the nation as they preserve the original relationship between the built and the territory. However, the needs of contemporary society in recent decades have increasingly led to small towns in conditions of physical degradation and economic backwardness. Thus, it seems urgent to define investment projects so that these settlements can regenerate territories that have become fragile. Nevertheless, in most cases intervention initiatives are examined without taking into account the multiple components of risk of bankruptcy. The purpose of the paper is to characterize a model of economic analysis that allows to express a judgment on the acceptability of the investment risk. This is possible by integrating the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) logic into traditional economic evaluation protocols, which allows to establish if a risk mitigation intervention has costs that are disproportionate to the expected benefits. The model is also applied with the aim of selecting effective strategies for the enhancement of historic small towns in the Campania region.