Growth and restoration of Posidonia oceanica meadows through ecological modeling

Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile forms one of the most important and threatened ecosystems of Mediterranean coastal waters, hosting diverse communities and shaping the seascape over large time scales. To counteract the widespread regressions of P. oceanica meadows, restoration programs are becoming common practice, but their successfulness and outcomes, in terms of meadow evolution over time, are hard to predict. In this context, ecological modeling can provide crucial support in evaluating the potential evolution of P. oceanica meadows according to environmental constraints but, to this end, the modeling of each plant within the meadow and its interactions with the surrounding environment should be attained. With a view to provide a modeling tool for the evaluation of the effectiveness and outcomes of P. oceanica restoration plans, we are currently developing an environment-aware architectural individual based model of P. oceanica growth from single individual. The parameterization relies on a large synthesis of the existing knowledge on the ecology of P. oceanica which has been developed in the R programming language in order to ensure the seamless integration of model outcomes and their analysis. The goal is to provide a tool for the generation of realistic scenarios of meadow/seascape evolution, allowing optimizing restoration activities and meadow management.