Urbanistica e sicurezza. Un modello risk-based per la prevenzione ambientale del rischio da criminalità

The topic of urban security has become highly relevant in the urban agendas of cities and metropolitan areas. One of the main requirements for well- functioning cities and their sustainability is that they have secure streets and public spaces, as confirmed by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of the 2030 Agenda, in particular SDG 11. Security in the city is hindered everyday by the occurrence of predatory crimes or incivility episodes that affect the perception of insecurity and increase fear. The latter is a real social problem, with actual and measurable impacts on the city' s functioning and the economy of the whole urban structure. The objective of making the city safer cannot be pursued exclusively through repressive or control actions, or sporadic social interventions. The complexity of the problem requires an integrated approach both in the assessment of security conditions and in the definition of appropriate intervention strategies, including environmental crime prevention strategies. The outlined strategies’ effectiveness depends on the knowledge of the specific context and on a complete risk scenario analysis, which is able to combine and synthesise all the aspects that contribute to the creation of security conditions. It is also noted that no instrument available in the literature provides an unambiguous definition, a complete assessment or a mapping method for the concept of crime risk and that there is an absence of explicit guidelines in municipal urban Plans. The research is integrated into the theme by proposing a crime risk mapping method that can be replicated in any territorial context. The composite crime risk index IRc, structured according to the territorial risk paradigm, combines the main aspects that contribute to the characterisation of risk scenarios. Through three risk factors (Hc, Vc, Ec), each of them described by appropriate indicators, it integrates: the probability of crime occurrence and, therefore, the probability of actual victimisation; the physical and functional predisposition of spaces to favour the occurrence of crimes or insecurity; information on the population, understood as an element exposed to crime risk. The crime risk map associated with the IRc index, structured in five risk classes (R1, R2, R3, R4, R5), gives a snapshot of the risk conditions of the studied territory. It highlights the presence, intensity and surface extension of the critical areas against which to evaluate appropriate intervention strategies. The outlined model also proposes the definition of specific actions for the municipal urban Plan in order to promote a systematic action of adapting spaces to security criteria. .. [edited by Author]