This study applies the vulnerability-resilience framework to a sample of 17 countries, including South Mediterranean countries, North Mediterranean EU countries, and North EU non mediterranean countries, to assess their levels of inherent economic and environmen-tal vulnerability and their capacity for policy-induced resilience. The Economic Vulnerability Index combines indicators related to export concentration, trade openness, climate vulnerability, food and energy import dependence. Resilience is understood as the policy-induced capacity to absorb shocks, mobilize resources and support long-term adaptation based on several pillars such as: economic resilience, inclu-ding macroeconomic stability, microeconomic market efficiency, good governance and social development. The empirical analysis is based on a comparative dataset at country level covering two periods: 2010-2016 and 2017-2022. The vulnerability-resilience nexus is used as a diagnostic tool. It allows us to distinguish between structural exposure and adaptive capacity and to assess how their interaction shapes development trajectories. The empirical analysis follows this logic by first examining descriptive indicators of vulnerability and resilience and then combi-ning them through vulnerability-resilience matrices and maps. These matrices identify whether countries are positioned in relatively resilient areas, where exposure is offset by adaptive capacity, or in vulnerability traps, where exposure and weak resilience reinforce each other. The analysis highlights the persistent structural divide between more central Northern European economies and South Mediterranean economies, whose vulnerabilities are further exacerbated by climate change and by an increasingly fast-paced technological transformation. Further analysis is devoted to adaptation strategies, distinguishing between physical system adaptation and human and social system adaptation, including education, welfare, institutional quality, and social inclusion.
Vulnerable by Nature, Resilient by Choice? Rethinking Development in the Mediterranean
Anna Maria Ferragina;Martina Anna Muraca
2026
Abstract
This study applies the vulnerability-resilience framework to a sample of 17 countries, including South Mediterranean countries, North Mediterranean EU countries, and North EU non mediterranean countries, to assess their levels of inherent economic and environmen-tal vulnerability and their capacity for policy-induced resilience. The Economic Vulnerability Index combines indicators related to export concentration, trade openness, climate vulnerability, food and energy import dependence. Resilience is understood as the policy-induced capacity to absorb shocks, mobilize resources and support long-term adaptation based on several pillars such as: economic resilience, inclu-ding macroeconomic stability, microeconomic market efficiency, good governance and social development. The empirical analysis is based on a comparative dataset at country level covering two periods: 2010-2016 and 2017-2022. The vulnerability-resilience nexus is used as a diagnostic tool. It allows us to distinguish between structural exposure and adaptive capacity and to assess how their interaction shapes development trajectories. The empirical analysis follows this logic by first examining descriptive indicators of vulnerability and resilience and then combi-ning them through vulnerability-resilience matrices and maps. These matrices identify whether countries are positioned in relatively resilient areas, where exposure is offset by adaptive capacity, or in vulnerability traps, where exposure and weak resilience reinforce each other. The analysis highlights the persistent structural divide between more central Northern European economies and South Mediterranean economies, whose vulnerabilities are further exacerbated by climate change and by an increasingly fast-paced technological transformation. Further analysis is devoted to adaptation strategies, distinguishing between physical system adaptation and human and social system adaptation, including education, welfare, institutional quality, and social inclusion.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
