Reliability-growth analysis of locomotive electrical equipment

Abstract: A stochastic model is developed to describe the reliability-growth of advanced technological systems during a planned on-service period for the purpose of determining supplier conformity to the contractual target. The model is applied to the electrical equipment of a fleet of locomotives built for the Italian railway transport system. Based on the model's ability to describe the observed reliability-growth process of a single locomotive, a testing procedure is developed to reveal possible heterogeneity over the entire fleet of locomotives. The probability of demonstrating contractual compliance at the end of the development period is predicted on the basis of the failure data collected during the entire development program. This paper was one of three finalist for the 2006 American Society for Quality Brumbaugh Award. Founded in 1949, Brumbaugh Award is presented for the paper, published in the preceding year, that a committee decides has made the largest single contribution to the development of industrial application of quality control.