During the last decade, the Solofrana catchment (Southern Italy – Mediterranean basin) has been called to face the problem of an increased frequency of Multiple Damaging Hydrological Events. On a general perspective, this could be related to the intensification of the hydrological cycle due to two major issues: the urbanization on one side and the evolving climate on the other. With reference to the climate, the Mediterranean basin appears a particularly vulnerable environment because of potential future alternations of extreme rainfall. A large fraction of the precipitation occurring in autumn and winter, when about 58% of MDHE are detected within the studied catchment, is related to the Mediterranean cyclones. The aim is the investigation of the role played by the climate in the intensification of the hydrological catchment response. A number of about 25 MDHE, within the period 1951-2014, have been selected and analyzed in terms of cumulate rainfall amount and profile (Binary Shape Code), duration extent, maximum intensity and temporal occurrences. The comparison with statistical results of historical precipitation records, tested for trend detection, for the same catchment, has also enabled the possibility to assess the occurrences probability or the return periods of the selected events, to verify or reject their exceptional nature. The main findings of the reported study relate to the fact that climate evolving tendencies do not appear significant in most of the cases and that MDHEs occurred within the studied catchment also for rainfall events of very moderate intensity and/or severity. The illustrated results seems to indicate that climate variability has not assumed the main role in the large number of damaging event, and that the relative increase hazardous hydro-geological events in the last decade, is instead most likely caused by incorrect planning policies and dissolute increase in urbanization.
Event and long term scale analysis of rainfall triggering MDHE in a peri-urban system
MOBILIA, MIRKA;LONGOBARDI, Antonia
2015-01-01
Abstract
During the last decade, the Solofrana catchment (Southern Italy – Mediterranean basin) has been called to face the problem of an increased frequency of Multiple Damaging Hydrological Events. On a general perspective, this could be related to the intensification of the hydrological cycle due to two major issues: the urbanization on one side and the evolving climate on the other. With reference to the climate, the Mediterranean basin appears a particularly vulnerable environment because of potential future alternations of extreme rainfall. A large fraction of the precipitation occurring in autumn and winter, when about 58% of MDHE are detected within the studied catchment, is related to the Mediterranean cyclones. The aim is the investigation of the role played by the climate in the intensification of the hydrological catchment response. A number of about 25 MDHE, within the period 1951-2014, have been selected and analyzed in terms of cumulate rainfall amount and profile (Binary Shape Code), duration extent, maximum intensity and temporal occurrences. The comparison with statistical results of historical precipitation records, tested for trend detection, for the same catchment, has also enabled the possibility to assess the occurrences probability or the return periods of the selected events, to verify or reject their exceptional nature. The main findings of the reported study relate to the fact that climate evolving tendencies do not appear significant in most of the cases and that MDHEs occurred within the studied catchment also for rainfall events of very moderate intensity and/or severity. The illustrated results seems to indicate that climate variability has not assumed the main role in the large number of damaging event, and that the relative increase hazardous hydro-geological events in the last decade, is instead most likely caused by incorrect planning policies and dissolute increase in urbanization.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
