Quantitative risk analysis for hyperconcentrated flows in Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy)

This paper reports on a quantitative estimation of the risk to residents at the toe of Mount Albino, a carbonatic relief covered by shallow deposits of pyroclastic soils, which threatens the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy). The quantitative risk analysis (QRA) focuses on one type ofmass transport phenomena typical for the context at hand, namely the hyperconcentrated flows. The methodological approach includes three main steps: hazard analysis, consequence analysis and risk estimation. Based on historical incident data, the hazard analysis makes use of a high-resolution digital terrain model and advanced models that incorporate relevant geological and geotechnical input data collected via in situ investigations and laboratory tests. The consequence analysis takes into account information on the exposed persons (age, gender) and their vulnerability. The estimated risk to life is calculated at the individual level (risk to the average andmost exposed person). The reported procedure is one of the firstQRA’s applications to instabilities which potentially affect natural slopes in Italy, and it was successfully used as technical basis for a public participatory process in Nocera Inferiore, designed and developed to support decisions about risk mitigation measures.