Uncertainty of input parameters and sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment: An Italian processed tomato product

In the last years, food industries have sought to achieve more sustainable productions to meet the consumers’ needs and limit the damages to the environment. The agri-food sector is one of the most impactful on the environment, due to resources depletion, land degradation and emissions. In Italy, one of the most important sectors in the agri-food industry is the tomato processing. Indeed, Italy is one of the world leading processed tomato producers, representing approximately 13% of the global production and 48% of European production. According to the latest data released by the National Association of the Canned Vegetables Industry (Anicav), Italy's processed tomato production totalled 5.1 million metric tons (MMT) in 2016. Among them, mashed tomato (“passata”) represents about 50% of packaged tomato volumes in Italy. The aim of this work is to use a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach to make a “from cradle to grave” analysis of this Italian processed product. In particular, the environmental performances of 500 g mashed tomato packaged in Tetra Pak®, produced by a Southern Italy company, are studied. The uncertainty of the input parameters is taken into account and a Monte Carlo simulation is performed. All data are analyzed using SimaPro 8.4.0 software, adopting ReCiPe 1.12 method at midpoint and endpoint level. It is clear that both agricultural steps, processing steps and packaging materials’ production generate relevant contributions to impact categories at midpoint and endpoint level. In particular, cultivation is the main contributor to the majority of midpoint categories. In order to identify, among the processing steps, the most affecting ones, an in-depth analysis is proposed. Among them, blanching, concentration and pasteurization steps are the main contributors to the emissions. A sensitivity analysis, considering the effect of the substitution of the energy sources, is conducted. Two improved scenarios are proposed to minimize the emissions at endpoint level, and it can be observed that the most promising solution, from the environmental point of view, would lead to a global reduction of 33.3% of the emissions affecting human health, ecosystem diversity and resource bioavailability.