Nowadays, the problem of climate change receives a wide resonance throughout the world. According to meteorological observations in Bashkortostan over the past 30 years, annual precipitation has increased. The occurrence of natural hazards is directly related to climate change, the number of which has been steadily increasing in recent years. If in the period from 1998 till 2005, their number in Bashkiria ranged from 5 to 11, then in 2010 it was recordedas 37, and as 34 in 2016. In this article, the object of study is the Republic of Bashkortostan, its territory is 142, 947 km2. Available data consists of annual time series of precipitation for 34 stations, they were analyzed to identify potential trends and their significance. As a first step, precipitation data was checked to assess the quality of the data, to find potential points of change in the time series. For this purpose, parametric (The Student's t -test) and non-parametric (Pettitt's test) statistical criteria were applied. Then, a statistical test was used to determine the significance of linear trends (the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Sen's test). Thus, the main purposes of the article are to detect points of change, as well as, to check, with a help of parametric and non-parametric tests, annual trends for precipitation data. © 2019 Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Analysis of trends in annual time series of precipitation in the Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation

Longobardi, A
2019

Abstract

Nowadays, the problem of climate change receives a wide resonance throughout the world. According to meteorological observations in Bashkortostan over the past 30 years, annual precipitation has increased. The occurrence of natural hazards is directly related to climate change, the number of which has been steadily increasing in recent years. If in the period from 1998 till 2005, their number in Bashkiria ranged from 5 to 11, then in 2010 it was recordedas 37, and as 34 in 2016. In this article, the object of study is the Republic of Bashkortostan, its territory is 142, 947 km2. Available data consists of annual time series of precipitation for 34 stations, they were analyzed to identify potential trends and their significance. As a first step, precipitation data was checked to assess the quality of the data, to find potential points of change in the time series. For this purpose, parametric (The Student's t -test) and non-parametric (Pettitt's test) statistical criteria were applied. Then, a statistical test was used to determine the significance of linear trends (the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Sen's test). Thus, the main purposes of the article are to detect points of change, as well as, to check, with a help of parametric and non-parametric tests, annual trends for precipitation data. © 2019 Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11386/4732491
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