A time-driven FCA-based approach for identifying students' dropout in MOOCs

In online learning, the dropout phenomenon is a relevant issue to address with practical solutions. Several data sets stimulate original, and resolutive data analysis approaches, demonstrating the importance of the dropout phenomenon. This study proposes a novel approach to predicting massive online open course (MOOC) students at risk of dropout stressing the need to consider the temporal dimension in the data log. The proposal aims to build a data-driven decision support system able to identify students at risk of dropout based on the conceptualization of such students' behavior and its evolution along the time dimension. The primary theoretical model behind the proposed method is the formal concept analysis, and its temporal extension (i.e., temporal concept analysis) for analyzing timestamped data and carrying out a timed lattice. The main result of the paper is a method to extract behavioral patterns of MOOC students at risk of dropout. Such patterns are defined as Time-based Behavior Rules extracted from the aforementioned timed lattice obtained through the preprocessing of MOOC platform log files. The resulting rule set can be easily integrated for implementing educational DSS, as shown in the last part of the paper. The conducted experiments reveal promising results in terms of F-score and students' monitoring time.