Subnational carbon flow pattern analysis using multi-scale input-output model

As the largest carbon emission country, China is struggling with the carbon outsourcing problem at inter-provincial and international scale. Identifying the role of each provincial region is helpful for mitigation adaptation policy by local government. Based on the Multi-Scale Input-Output model (MSIO), the characteristics of subnational carbon flow pattern embodied in domestic and international trade for China in 2010 are analyzed in a global economy system. Results show that the net export of emissions for the whole of China was 903.4 MtCO 2 e. Due to regional heterogeneity in economic development and natural resource endowments, different subnational regions present multi-carbon flow patterns categorized into resource supplier (where outflow is greater than inflow, such as Inner Mongolia), self-sufficient type (where local consumption ratio is greater than 50%, such as Qinghai), consumer (where inflow is greater than outflow, such as Beijing), as well as trade hub center and final producer (where both inflow and outflow are large, such as Jiangsu). This study lays a foundation for emission reduction responsibility division and regional mitigation cooperation at subnational scale. Targeted policies implications at subnational scale are recommended for each type accordingly.