: The urgency to develop vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the acceleration of clinical trials. Specifically, a broad spectrum of efficacy levels has been reported for various vaccines based on phase III cohort studies. Our study demonstrates that conducting large cohort phase III clinical trials during the peak of an epidemic leads to a significant underestimation of vaccine efficacy, even in the absence of confounding factors. Furthermore, we find that this underestimation increases with the proportion of infectious individuals in the population during the experiment and the severity of the epidemic, as measured by its basic reproduction number.

Measuring the efficacy of a vaccine during an epidemic

Scala, Antonio
Conceptualization
;
Cavallo, Pierpaolo
Methodology
2023-01-01

Abstract

: The urgency to develop vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the acceleration of clinical trials. Specifically, a broad spectrum of efficacy levels has been reported for various vaccines based on phase III cohort studies. Our study demonstrates that conducting large cohort phase III clinical trials during the peak of an epidemic leads to a significant underestimation of vaccine efficacy, even in the absence of confounding factors. Furthermore, we find that this underestimation increases with the proportion of infectious individuals in the population during the experiment and the severity of the epidemic, as measured by its basic reproduction number.
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11386/4841251
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo

Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? 0
  • Scopus 0
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 0
social impact