Hybrid learning strategies for multivariate time series forecasting of network quality metrics

This work addresses the challenge of forecasting temporal metrics that characterize cellular traffic behavior. The ultimate goal is to provide network operators with a valuable tool for modeling mobile network traffic and optimizing connected resources. The idea is to estimate beforehand the temporal evolution of some Quality-of-Experience (QoE) and Quality-of-Service (QoS) metrics, which is helpful for accurately tuning the allocation of network resources. Remarkably, these metrics (expressed as time series) are typically correlated, and changes in one time series can affect others in a variety of ways and to different extents. For example, high network delay (a QoS-related metric) is associated with degradation in voice quality over time (a QoE-related metric). Accordingly, we address the problem of cellular traffic forecasting with correlated time series, proposing three innovative hybrid learning strategies designed by combining the advantages of two approaches: (i) a statistical approach, implemented through the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, which encodes each metric as combination of past values of the same metric along with a combination of values of other related metrics, resulting in a multivariate structure; and (ii) an approach based on deep learning techniques (specifically, CNN, LSTM, and GRU) which operate on such a multivariate structure to perform the forecasting. The resulting performance demonstrates the benefits of the proposed hybrid schemes (VAR-CNN, VAR-LSTM, VAR-GRU) over their pure counterparts, with a significant reduction in forecasting errors. The network metrics were gathered in a real urban cellular environment, where the presence of exogenous factors (e.g., interferences, weather conditions, etc.) makes the forecasting assessment particularly challenging.