Shrinkage risk. Multidimensionality and complexity of the phenomenon and guidelines for urban planning

In the changing landscape of urban development and planning, “urban shrinkage” has emerged as a phenomenon with significant spatial implications and deserves to be studied and understood in depth. Shrinking cities and policies to manage their decline have become increasingly relevant topics in urban planning and governance. Experts and planners today face urban shrinkage with poor regulatory support, theoretical background and practical experience. The changes taking place, and not only in our country, make it necessary to reinterrogate established urban planning techniques around a different development idea. This paper deconstructs the phenomenon as a risk, identifying factors such as an unbalanced industrial structure, inadequate infrastructural development, an ageing population and the centralizing effect of large cities as causal elements. There is a need to outline a set of strategies to manage decline through a collaborative approach that addresses economic, social and environmental factors, prioritizing the needs and aspirations of the population. Within this newly outlined framework, urban planning plays a key role in shaping the future trajectory of shrinking cities by guiding strategic investments, fostering community resilience and promoting sustainable development. Urban planners can help revitalize declining neighbourhoods, restore economic vitality and create inclusive urban environments.