A Supervised Machine Learning-Based Approach for Task Workload Prediction in Manufacturing: A Case Study Application

Predicting workload for tasks in manufacturing is a complex challenge due to the numerous variables involved. In small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), this process is often experience-based, leading to inaccurate predictions that significantly impact production planning, order management, and consequently the ability to meet customer deadlines. This paper presents an approach that leverages machine learning to enhance workload prediction with minimal data collection, making it particularly suitable for SMEs. A case study application using supervised machine learning models for regression, trained in an open-source data analytics, reporting, and integration platform (KNIME Analytics Platform), has been carried out. An Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) regression approach was employed to identify the most suitable model for task workload prediction based on minimising the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) scores. Specifically, the Regression Tree (RT) model demonstrated superior accuracy compared to more traditional simple averaging and manual predictions when modelling data for a single product type. When incorporating all available product data, despite a slight performance decrease, the XGBoost Tree Ensemble still outperformed the traditional approaches. These findings highlight the potential of machine learning to improve workload forecasting in manufacturing, offering a practical and easily implementable solution for SMEs.