Designing a Simulation-Based Decision Support System for Managing Frost Risk in the Wine Supply Chain

The Wine Supply Chain (WSC) is highly vulnerable to climate-related risks that represent an important challenge since they can severely damage grapevines and reduce yield. Among these, spring frost events, characterized by subzero temperatures during early phenological stages, pose a significant threat, especially in the context of increasing climate variability. This paper presents a simulation-based Decision Support System (DSS) designed to support integrated risk management in the WSC. The model adopts a hybrid simulation approach to realistically represent vineyard operations and wine production under variable environmental conditions. By incorporating historical weather data and empirical models of plant physiology, the simulation quantifies yield variations, quality degradation, and economic losses under three different risk scenarios in response to frost events. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are employed to quantitatively assess the economic and quality performance of the system and evaluate its resilience under each scenario. The results show that both mitigation strategies significantly reduce yield loss and improve system performance compared to the baseline. The analysis highlights the importance of scenario-based planning to improve preparedness and support data-driven decision-making in viticulture under climate uncertainty. The proposed DSS framework enables stakeholders to assess the trade-offs between different mitigation strategies, anticipate disruptions, and improve the overall resilience and sustainability of wine production systems. Future research is needed to explore multiple concurrent risks and broader supply chain dynamics, supporting long-term adaptation strategies for the agri-food sector.