Risk assessment of urban safety based on access to green spaces: a comparative analysis of the neighborhoods of Cerezos in Soacha (Cundinamarca) and Bella Flor in Ciudad Bolívar, Bogotá, Colombia

This article analyses the risk to urban safety associated with green areas and other open spaces in two informal neighbourhoods located on the periphery of Bogotá: Cerezos (Soacha) and Bella Flor (Ciudad Bolívar). The study is conducted in vulnerable contexts characterised by the presence of displaced populations, deficits in public space provision, and weak institutional support, all of which contribute to conditions of insecurity. Drawing on an integrated framework that combines critical geography, environmental criminology, and the Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) approach, the research examines the relationship between urban configuration, visibility, maintenance, and natural surveillance. Methodologically, the study adopts a quantitative descriptive-correlational approach with a non-experimental cross-sectional design, operationalising risk through an index that integrates perceived vulnerability, exposure to legally defined crimes, official crime statistics, and conditions of urban precariousness. Fifteen indicators of open spaces were assessed using a participatory matrix applied to the community and triangulated with expert judgement and institutional sources. The results reveal a heterogeneous spatial distribution of risk: Bella Flor presents predominantly low-risk levels with localised critical points, whereas Cerezos concentrates medium and high-risk levels, particularly in sports parks. The study suggests that green areas may be associated either with social cohesion or with elevated risk conditions, depending on their spatial configuration, maintenance, and local territorial dynamics.