Equilibrium indeterminacy in rational expectations models is often claimed to produce higher time series persistence relative to determinacy. Proceeding by means of a simple linear stochastic model, I formally show that, for reasonable parameter configurations, there exists an uncountable (continuously infinite) set of indeterminate equilibria in low-order AR(MA) representation, which exhibit strictly lower persistence than their determinate counterpart. Implications for empirical studies concerned with, e.g., testing for indeterminacy and macroeconomic forecasting are discussed.
Persistent dynamics in (in)determinate equilibrium rational expectations models
	
	
	
		
		
		
		
		
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
		
		
		
		
		
			
			
			
		
		
		
		
			
			
				
				
					
					
					
					
						
							
						
						
					
				
				
				
				
				
				
				
				
				
				
				
			
			
		
		
		
		
	
Sorge, Marco Maria
			2021
Abstract
Equilibrium indeterminacy in rational expectations models is often claimed to produce higher time series persistence relative to determinacy. Proceeding by means of a simple linear stochastic model, I formally show that, for reasonable parameter configurations, there exists an uncountable (continuously infinite) set of indeterminate equilibria in low-order AR(MA) representation, which exhibit strictly lower persistence than their determinate counterpart. Implications for empirical studies concerned with, e.g., testing for indeterminacy and macroeconomic forecasting are discussed.File in questo prodotto:
	
	
	
    
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
		
			
				
			
		
		
	
	
	
	
		
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