Electoral volatility and government performance in European countries: a multivariate analysis

The recent growth in electoral volatility is causing increasing concern in political circles and growing interest among political scientists. This article aims to present the results obtained by our research group in examining electoral volatility in European countries. The analysis focuses on the results of the last two elections for the national parliament (lower house). We calculate electoral volatility using the Pedersen index but refer to volatility between party blocs. Rather than merely testing the skeptical trust perspective, the article offers a refinement of this theoretical framework by showing that electoral volatility responds more strongly to evaluations of government performance than to subjective levels of political trust. We also consider some control variables relating to the institutional political environment. Our multivariate analysis does not falsify the idea that national differences in electoral volatility are caused by the degree to which the political system conforms, or fails to conform, to voter expectations.